Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Financial Teasers 19 March 2008

Top Stories

  • Commodities drop as investors sell to cover other losses
    Oil, copper, coffee and wheat, among other commodities, fell Monday as investors sold to cover losses in financial stocks and bonds. "I think a move toward liquidity, aside from the longer-term fundamentals, is driving this," said Bart Melek, Global Commodity Strategist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto. Investors, however, clung to gold as a safe haven, keeping the price above $1,000 per ounce. CNBC/Reuters (17 Mar.)
  • Hedge fund managers may emerge as market saviors
    While most eyes are on the Federal Reserve to get the markets back on track, a group of hedge fund managers is poised for action that could help restore liquidity. Brian Snider, senior vice president at hedge fund research firm Hennessee Group, said about 60 hedge funds are planning a bargain-shopping spree for distressed debt and leveraged loans. FinancialWeek (17 Mar.)
  • JPMorgan gets hedge fund brokerage with Bear buy: The acquisition of Bear Stearns gives JPMorgan Chase the third largest hedge fund brokerage. News of the acquisition stabilized Bear's hedge fund business, which had been losing clients as financial woes mounted. "As bad as things are at Bear Stearns, this is still a franchise with a lot of value," said William Fitzpatrick of Optique Capital Management. Bloomberg (18 Mar.)
  • Threat of "counterparty risk" hangs over markets
    Bear Stearn's near collapse underscores the threat of "counterparty risk," particularly in the credit derivatives market where it is a major counterparty. JPMorgan's takeover of Bear removes the immediate threat of default but kicks off the logistical nightmare that follows "novation," the replacement of one party by another. Financial Times (17 Mar.) , Reuters (17 Mar.)
  • Shareholders plan to file suit against German bank IKB
    IKB's shareholders say the German bank failed to inform them early enough about its U.S. subprime exposure. The parties have been unable to reach an out-of-court agreement, so the investors plan to file a lawsuit against the bank no later than July, according to an attorney for some of the investors. Spiegel Online (17 Mar.)
  • Growing demand for metals has mining companies scrambling
    Mining companies are struggling to find enough workers and equipment to meet the global demand for steel. To understand the precarious situation, consider the problems facing Vale, a leading iron-ore producer that operates a mining complex in the Amazon Basin of Brazil. BusinessWeek (18 Mar.)
  • China snubs ore from Australia's top mining companies: The Chinese Government is said to have orchestrated a boycott of Australian mining giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, costing Australia millions in export profits and threatening a diplomatic battle. China's steel association said no official directive was issued and that steel companies decided for themselves. The Sydney Morning Herald (18 Mar.)
Market Activity

  • Asian markets mixed as Shanghai extends losses
    Most Asian markets were down Tuesday, led by Shanghai-listed stocks, which extended their losing streak to five days on concerns the central bank will continue to tighten monetary policies. Japanese shares, though, were up in the morning session as investors trolled for bargains in financial stocks. The Nikkei 225 Average was up 1.5%, while the Topix index ended the morning session 1% higher. The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.1%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.6%. MarketWatch (18 Mar.)
  • Moody's: Structured bonds in Asia likely to rise slowly
    The global rout in the credit market will likely hurt the sales of structured bonds, including asset-backed securities, in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, Moody's Investors Service predicts. Borrowers in that region sold about $5.2 billion of securities linked to assets in 2007, down 46% from the previous year. Bloomberg (18 Mar.)
  • Political concerns drag down Turkey's financial markets
    The global credit crunch already had investors in Turkey nervous, and then the country's senior prosecutor threatened to shut down the governing party, causing financial markets to drop by as much as 9% Monday. The prosecutor is accusing the Justice and Development party of "anti-secular activities" and demanding its closure. The constitutional court said it will decide whether to proceed with the case within the next 10 days. Financial Times (17 Mar.)
Economics

  • Federal Reserve may cut rates by up to 1%
    Video: Fed Rate Decision
    The Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by as much as a full percentage point when it meets Tuesday. Investors are worried that investment bank results could trigger a full-blown market crisis. The Fed has reduced interest rates by 2.25% since mid-September. ClipSyndicate/Bloomberg (18 Mar.) , Reuters (18 Mar.)
  • U.K. banks seek emergency loans from Bank of England
    British retail banks sought more than £23 billion in emergency loans from the Bank of England on Monday amid fear that the global credit crisis is worsening. Shares in U.K. banks plunged, causing the FTSE 100 index to close at a 2 1/2-year low. JPMorgan's cut-rate rescue of Bear Stearns -- an attempt to ease fear in the markets -- triggered the sell-off. The Times (London) (18 Mar.)
  • Wen: China concerned about global economy
    Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said he's "deeply worried" about the global economic fallout from the subprime meltdown. "What concerns me now is the continuous depreciation of the U.S. dollar and when the dollar will hit bottom," he said. Keeping inflation at 4.8% is a challenge, he said, although he added that he is confident China can keep price rises in check while allowing growth. Reuters (18 Mar.) , Bloomberg (18 Mar.) , China Daily (Beijing) (18 Mar.)
Geopolitical/Regulatory

Financial Products

  • Mutual fund companies offer access to private equity
    Some mutual fund companies are offering their clients access to private equity investments in an effort to boost returns while the stock market is stumbling. Lehman Brothers recently launched a platform for exchange traded notes called Opta. One of the ETNs tracks the S&P 500 Listed Private Equity Index. InvestmentNews (17 Mar.)
Ethics

Former Qwest CEO gets new trial on insider trading charges
A U.S. appeals court voted 2-1 to overturn the conviction of Joseph Nacchio, former CEO of Qwest Communications International, on charges of insider trading. The court ordered a new trial before a different judge, saying District Judge Edward Nottingham was wrong to bar an expert witness in Nacchio's first trial. Reuters (17 Mar.)

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

The New Faces of Malaysia Cabinet

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced his new administration noon today. Seats were reduced from 32 to 27 with more than half are new faces. 'Old' ones like Datuk Seri Rafidah Aziz (former International Trade and Industry Minister), Datuk Azmi Khalid (former Home Affairs Minister) and Datuk Dr Jamaluddin Jarjis (former Science, Technology and Innovations Minister) were no longer required to fight along with the new Cabinet comrades.

And just in case you are not up todate with the recent election results, both Samy Vellu and Ong Ka Ting have been defeated. Both have also said that they will not be taking up any position in the Cabinet to revive their respective parties' failures. Not that they can take up Cabinet positions if they ever wanted it but in the announced list today, their names were of course not listed.

As reported by The Edge on their website, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index ("KLCI") closed 2.27 points lower at 1,1756.26 points. Looks like the new line of Cabinet did not really erase the fear of political instability in the investors' mindset, at least for the first half of the day.

For those who would like to have a glimpse of the new faces, here you go:

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak

Ministers in the Prime Minister's Department Tan Sri Bernard Dompok, Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz, Datuk Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Datuk Mohd Zaid Ibrahim, Datuk Amirsham Abdul Aziz

Deputy Ministers in the Prime Minister's Department Datuk Johari Baharom, Datuk Dr Mashitah Ibrahim, Datuk K. Devamany, Datuk Hassan Malik

Finance
Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi
Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop
Deputies Datuk Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah, Datuk Kong Cho Ha

Defence
Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak
Deputy Datuk Wira Abu Seman Yusop

Internal Security and Home Affairs
Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar
Deputies Datuk Chor Chee Heong, Senator Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh

Housing and Local Government
Minister Datuk Ong Ka Chuan
Deputies Datuk Robert Lau, Datuk Hamzah Zainuddin

Works Minister
Minister Datuk Mohd Zin Mohamad
Deputy Datuk Yong Khoon Seng

Energy, Water and Communications
Minister Datuk Shaziman Abu Mansor
Deputy Datuk Joseph Salang Gandum

Agriculture and Agro-based Industry
Minister Datuk Mustapa Mohamed
Deputy Datin Paduka Rohani Abdul Karim

International Trade and Industry
Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin
Deputies Loh Wei Keong, Datuk Jacob Dungau Sagan

Foreign Affairs
Minister Datuk Seri Dr Rais Yatim
Deputy Tunku Azlan Abu Bakar

Education
Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein
Deputies Datuk Wee Ka Siong, Datuk Razali Ismail

Higher Education
Minister Datuk Khaled Nordin
Deputies Khoo Kok Choong, Datuk Idris Harun

Transport
Minister Datuk Ong Tee Keat
Deputy Anifah Aman

Human Resources
Minister Datuk S. Subramaniam
Deputy Datuk Noraini Ahmad

Women, Family and Community Development
Minister Datuk Dr Ng Yen Yen
Deputy Noriah Kasnon

National Unity, Culture, Arts and Heritage
Minister Datuk Shafie Apdal
Deputy Datuk Teng Boon Soon

Science, Technology and Innovation
Minister Datuk Dr Maximus Ongkili
Deputy Fadilah Yusof

Entrepreneurial and Cooperative Development
Minister Datuk Noh Omar
Deputy Datuk Saiffuddin Abdullah

Natural Resources and Environment
Minister Datuk Douglas Unggah Embas
Deputy Datuk Abu Ghapur Salleh

Rural and Regional Development
Minister Tan Sri Muhammad Muhd Taib
Deputy Tan Sri Joseph Kurup

Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs
Minister Datuk Shahrir Samad
Deputy Jelaing Mersat

Plantation Industries and Commodities
Minister Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui
Deputy Senator A. Kohilan

Youth and Sports
Minister Datuk Ismail Sabri Yaacob
Deputy Wee Jack Seng

Health
Minister Datuk Liow Tiong Lai
Deputy Datuk Dr Abdul Latiff Ahmad

Information
Minister Datuk Ahmad Shabery Cheek
Deputy Datuk Tan Lian Hoe

Tourism
Minister Datuk Azalina Othman
Deputy Datuk Sulaiman Abdul Rahman Abu Taib

FT
Minister Datuk Zulhasnan Rafique
Deputy M. Saravanan

Good luck to them...

Monday, March 17, 2008

Riding on Gamblers When Times Are Uncertain

Let's do a simple research. First, think of family members or friends who gamble on 4-digits. Next, ask them whether are there any chances that they will consider cutting down on their stakes when US is experiencing sub-prime crisis or when 6 out of 10 economists are predicting that the US is heading towards recession.

Blink... blink... They probably stare at you blankly, not even attempting to figure out what sub-marine opps, sub-prime crisis is. Not to mention that they do not even know what economists do. Betting on 4-digits have been a lifestyle for most Malaysians. There are 1001 reasons that 4-digits gamblers rely on in making their bets. Dreams, car accidents, birth dates, car number plates, house nos, telephone nos, identification card nos, nos provided by mediums and not forgetting Flower Horn, to name a few. Once betting becomes a hardcore lifestyle, it's difficult to cut down even when the bad economy condition is hitting the gamblers. My mum once said, when times are bad, the more the gamblers need to bet to earn some money as there are no other sources of income. If you are wondering, yes, my mum is a 4-digits gambler herself.

From this simple observation, 4-digits gambling industry becomes a defensive haven when times are uncertain. In this regard, there are a few stocks that we can look at - Magnum, Berjaya Toto and Tanjong. My good friend, PLing has also recently highlighted to me the consistent dividend that Berjaya Toto provides 4 times per year. This stock has always been under my radar of research and based on the following catalysts, Hengdai Equity Fund has invested 600 units of Berjaya Toto at RM4.82 per share today:


(a) Market share continues to rise


Revenue expanded by 11.7% in 3rd quarter, representing year to date growth of 9.3%. The good result is partially driven by the introduction of 6/52 Mega Jackpot in June 2007 and saliva-inducing jackpot of RM19.6 million during the period. As compared to its competitors, the company has market share of more than 40%.


(b) Share buyback


When a company buys back its share from the stock market, it means that the company is of the view that its stock is worth more than what the market is willing to pay for. The company had made the following share buybacks during the past few months:


June 2007 : 14,000,000 units at RM5.23

July 2007: 500,000 units at RM5.31

August 2007: 5,000,000 units at RM4.74

January 2008: 3,000,000 units at RM5.05

March 2008: 2,030,072units betwen RM4.82 to RM5.10


The average cost per share that the company bought back was roughly at RM5.09. If the share price goes down further, the company may most likely continue with its share buy back programme. Our purchase price of RM4.82 is 5.6% below the average share buy back price.


(c) Good dividend

At share price of RM4.82, dividend yield is expected to be good, may be hitting a double digit return if company maintains its dividend payout ratio. This is also a good reason to hold the shares, notwithstanding the price volalitily during uncertain times as the dividend yield is much better than fixed deposit rate.


(d) Management buy in

The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, namely Tan Sri Dato' Seri Vincent Tan Chee Yioun has also been buying shares. A quick summary of his recent purchase is as follows:

Our purhase price of RM4.82 is approximately 12.1% below Tan Sri Dato' Seri Vincent Tan's recent purchase price.














HDFIV Report Card @ 14 March 2008

Performance
This is the first performance report of Hengdai Equity Fund IV ("HDFIV") to fellow shareholders. KLCI was at 1,330.61 at date of commencement of HDFIV i.e. 3 March 2008. As at 14 March 2008, KLCI was recorded at 1,179, representing a drop of 11%. As HDFIV has not made any investments, the return is nil. NAV in the able is defined as the net asset value of HDFIV or in layman terms is how much the fund is worth.

Purchase
No purchases were made.

Sell
No investments were sold.

Asset Allocation





















Asset allocation shows the three main categories that our money lies in. The main category which we are expected to invest in to make the return that we wanted is Equities. At the moment, Equities is at 0% as we have yet to make any investments. Secondly, Fixed Income is in the form of fixed deposits that provides stable but low return. This second category provides small return when the cash is yet to be utilised for investment. As there is a lock-in period for fixed deposit such as at least for two months (if the amount is less than RM5,000), there is a need to maintain cash in the form of 'pure' cash, which is the third category. The set back of holding 'pure' cash ("Cash") is that we do not earn any return at all.

Financial Teasers 17 March 08

Top Stories

JPMorgan to acquire Bear Stearns for cut-rate price
JPMorgan Chase has agree to buy all of Bear Stearns shares for $2 each, for a total of about $270 million. A year ago, shares of Bear sold for $170. The unprecedented deal includes a commitment from JPMorgan and the Federal Reserve to guarantee the trading obligations of Bear. ClipSyndicate/Bloomberg (17 Mar.) , The New York Times (registration required) (17 Mar.) , Financial Times (16 Mar.)

Bear Stearns' downfall raises questions about other firms: The Bear Stearns buyout is triggering a crisis of confidence about other brokers, just as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers are about to report results. "If a firm as large and liquid as Bear can be taken down on what appears to us as exaggerated claims about liquidity and counterparty risk ... then what's to stop the same thing happening to other firms facing similar issues," wrote Michael Hecht, an analyst at Banc of America Securities. MarketWatch (14 Mar.)

Analysis: JPMorgan ends up with an apparent bargain: JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon -- after two days of tense discussions with Bear Stearns, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury -- appears to have bought a major investment bank at a bargain price. Now Dimon will have to decide what to do with his new assets, such as Bear's prime brokerage business, securities clearing unit and energy trading unit. Financial Times (17 Mar.)

Citic cancels proposed $1 billion tie-up with Bear
Citic Securities Co., one of China's biggest securities firms, has canceled an investment deal with
Bear Stearns
Cos. that was announced in November. "The situation has changed," said Citic Group Chairman Dan Kong, after Bear's buy-out by JPMorgan Chase & Co. ClipSyndicate/Bloomberg (17 Mar.) , Bloomberg (17 Mar.)

Bond insurers slowly make way through tough times
Although the bond insurers' stocks and credit default swaps are still distressed, the monolines are slowly working through troubled times. "What we are doing is really help restore confidence," John Uhlein, executive vice president at Ambac Assurance, said at a conference organized by the American Securitization Forum last week in New York. "That probably will take about six months." FinancialWeek (14 Mar.)

Analysts: Chinese banks' subprime losses will be limited
Researchers say China's major banks -- including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of China -- will suffer only limited subprime-related losses. The banks own just $10.237 billion of U.S. subprime assets, which amounts to less than 1% of the banks' total assets, the analysts found. China Daily (Beijing) (17 Mar.)

Oil soars to record $111 a barrel on Fed, Bear news
Oil increased to more than $111 a barrel on Monday on news of the Bear Stearns sale to JPMorgan Chase and the Federal Reserve's latest cut to the discount rate, which forced the dollar to record lows. "The dollar weakness is the factor at the moment," said Tony Nunan, a risk management executive at Mitsubishi. ClipSyndicate/Bloomberg (17 Mar.) , Reuters (17 Mar.)

Gold reaches new high of $1,030 per ounce
Gold prices hit an all-time high of $1,030.80 on Monday as more bad news about the U.S. financial markets surfaced. "Flight-to-quality buying is boosting gold as the market is losing faith in the dollar," said Tatsuo Kageyama, an analyst with Kanetsu Asset Management. CNBC/Reuters (16 Mar.)

News report says UBS considering slashing 8,000 jobs
UBS is looking into splitting its investment banking and wealth management businesses, along with cutting as many as 8,000 jobs, according to a Swiss newspaper report. Marcel Rohner, CEO of the Swiss banking giant, said UBS wants to keep the businesses together, but it must consider alternatives. The New York Times/Dow Jones Newswires (17 Mar.)

Market Activity

Asian markets plummet on global credit fears
JPMorgan Chase's acquisition of Bear Stearns, the Federal Reserve's bold moves, the declining dollar and concern about the global credit markets all contributed to the losses suffered by the Asian markets on Monday. The Nikkei 225 Average dropped 3.7%, The Hang Seng was down 4.1% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 and New Zealand's NZX 50 index each fell 2%. MarketWatch (17 Mar.)

Chinese shares drop more than 3% in morning session
China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.17% in the morning session, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the Hushen 300 Index plummeted 3.48% and 3.5%, respectively. The losses were led by blue-chip stocks. People's Daily (China) (17 Mar.)

Bear Stearns woes sparks fear in credit-default swaps market
Bear Stearns was a major force in the growth of the credit-default swaps market, so the firm's troubles are triggering concern in the market where investors, including hedge funds and banks, have taken long and short positions worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Regulators are already pushing for a more transparent system for settling contracts after a firm defaults, but the new market conditions may force the issue.
Financial Times (16 Mar.)

Swiss money markets freeze before bank's repo auction
Dealers say the Swiss franc money markets seized up before a Swiss National Bank repurchase agreement auction on Monday. "The situation is very extreme. Beyond one month there is no money market. There is a loss of trust. What is needed is coordinated central bank action -- rate cuts and intervention," said Peter Thor, a money market trader at UBS. Reuters (17 Mar.)

Economics

Fed moves boldly to boost liquidity for banks
The Federal Reserve has taken bold steps to provide liquidity to investment banks in an effort to curb the damage from the credit crunch. First, the Fed reduced its emergency lending rate to banks from 3.50% to 3.25%. It also created a new lending facility to provide investment banks with cash for short-term loans. "These steps will provide financial institutions with greater assurance of access to funds," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said. The Washington Post/Associated Press (16 Mar.)

Dollar plunges on banking woes, Fed's discount rate cut
The dollar continued its freefall on Monday as JPMorgan Chase's acquisition of Bear Stearns fueled fears that other financial companies might fail. "The speed of the slide in the dollar/yen is so rapid that U.S. action alone can no longer stop the dollar's downward trend," said Koichi Ogawa of Daiwa SB Investment. "The time is ripe for coordinated intervention by U.S., European and Japanese authorities." ClipSyndicate/Bloomberg (17 Mar.) , Reuters (17 Mar.)

HSBC chief says U.S. recession would impact Asia
HSBC Chief Executive Sandy Flockhart said a full-blown U.S. recession would hurt Asia, even though there have been few distress signals so far. "If the U.S., which accounts for 30% of the world's consumption, has a long and extended period of slow growth, then it's going to affect Asia," Flockhart said. The Times (London) (17 Mar.)

Gulf central banks pressed to sever ties with dollar
Central banks in the Gulf are feeling increased pressure to cut ties between the free-falling U.S. dollar and their own currencies. Officials in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have denied rumors of imminent decoupling, and analysts say a sudden move is unlikely. Investors, though, are scrambling to buy local currencies while banks call for revaluation. The Times (London) (17 Mar.)

Geopolitical/Regulatory

China's words, actions differ on monetary policy
China has repeatedly said it is tightening its monetary policy to curb inflation, but observers are questioning whether its actions are in sync with its rhetoric. The answer determines whether financial markets should factor in interest rate increases, a quicker appreciation of the yuan and a renewed crackdown on credit. Reuters (16 Mar.)

Zhou reappointed as China's central bank governor
The National People's Congress approved Zhou Xiaochuan's nomination to continue as the governor of China's central bank. The congress also confirmed numerous other positions, including that of Zhang Ping as head of the economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission. Reuters (17 Mar.)

Q-and-A: Carly Fiorina discusses McCain, Iraq, free tradeCarly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, has been campaigning for Sen. John McCain and has been said to be interested in a political career. Here, Fiorina discusses her new position on McCain's staff, McCain's agenda for the economy, immigration, free trade and the war in Iraq. BusinessWeek (17 Mar.)

Other News

Japan's parties argue over central bank chief's replacement
Forbes/Associated Press (17 Mar.)

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